Stock Market Summary for Mon Jun 4 2018
Tech stocks and retail were among the big winners on Monday as the rally from Friday continued, albeit on a slowing trajectory. The NASDAQ however made a new ail-time closing high on Monday.
Closing Statistics from Mon Jun 4 2018
The S&P rose 12.25 closing at 2746.87
The NASDAQ Composite rose 52.13 to close at 7606.46 a new closing high.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 178.48 to 24813.69
Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Mon Jun 4 2018
The S&P closed above the 21 day and all major moving averages on Monday.
The closing candlestick is still bullish but is often also followed by a day of weakness.
The 50 day moving average is still trending below the 100 day but is no longer falling. The 200 day is rising.
The Bollinger Bands are beginning to show signs of a possible squeeze coming but it is too early to tell if the squeeze will actually form up.
Overall the index chart is strongly bullish to push higher and probably retake 2750 on Tuesday.
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:
Momentum: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction. Momentum is positive and rising.
MACD Histogram: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on May 7. On Tue May 29 2018 MACD issued an number of unconfirmed down signal last week. Today it issued an up signal.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months. The Ultimate Oscillator signal is positive and rising.
Slow Stochastic: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day. The Slow Stochastic has a strong up signal in place for Tuesday.
Relative Strength Index: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal. The RSI signal is rising.
Rate of Change: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. The rate of change signal is rising.
Support Levels To Be Aware Of:
2745 to 2750 was light support
2725 is light support.
2700 is support.
2675 is light support.
2650 is light support
2620 is light support
2600 is strong support.
There is good support at the 2550 level from where the market bounced back from the recent correction low on Feb 9.
The S&P has light support at 2480. It also has light support at 2450 and good support at 2425. Below that there is some support at 2400, 2380, 2350. 2300 has the most support at present but would represent a full correction as a drop to this level would be 20% and just 5% away from a potential bear market signal.
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Tue Jun 5 2018
All the technical indicator signals are rising and pointing higher. Only the closing candlestick is advising that Tuesday could be lower but even that candlestick is signaling a lower day just for a day or two at most.
Overall Tuesday still looks like an up day by the close as the markets move higher still. However be prepared for some choppy trading and dips may be more common on Tuesday, especially in the morning.
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