While negotiations between London and Brussels are deadlocked, the risk of a "hard Brexit" increase, with the approach of the deadline of March 29, scheduled for the exit of the United Kingdom of the 'European Union.
The German Institute Halle for Economic Research (IWH) published Monday a study on the impact on employment of a Brexit without agreement with the European Union. His conclusions are quite disturbing because according to Halle, more than 612,000 jobs would be threatened in 43 countries, directly or indirectly, not counting the effects in other nations …
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According to the Institute, which focuses solely on the effects on international trade, a "hard Brexit" would result in a 25% drop in European imports to the United Kingdom (a figure higher than the British government's forecast). The study did not study the effects on employment of other factors such as the decline in investment or the loss of purchasing power of British households.
"If the fall in British demand is limited to 10% instead of 25%, then our estimates on employment should be divided by 2.5", however, specify the authors of the study.
The country most affected by a hard Brexit would be Germany with 102,000 jobs lost, followed by France, where 50,000 jobs would be threatened. A comparable number of workers would be affected in Italy, Poland and China.
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The countries that would feel the most effect of a hard Brexit would be the most connected to the UK economy, such as Malta, Ireland, Belgium, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Poland, Cyprus and Germany.
In the Hexagon, the most affected sectors would be food products, furniture manufacturing, wholesale trade and …