Despite a recent stock market rally that brings the Dow Jones Industrial Average down to 24,000, economists warn that the partial closure of the government and other factors have put the US economy at its worst. high risk of sinking into a recession of more than half a year. decade.

US recession more and more likely as government shutdown is pending

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "According to a new survey by Bloomberg, economic analysts estimate that there is an average 25% chance that the US will fall into recession in the next 12 months, ending an era of economic growth that began in 2009 and is about to become the longest ever recorded. "Data-reactid =" 29 "> According to a new Bloomberg study, economic analysts estimate that there is a 25% median chance that the US will enter recession over the next 12 months, putting end to an era of economic growth that began in 2009 months before becoming the longest on record.

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"It's not our call that the recession is imminent, but financial conditions have tightened significantly over the last two months." "Recurring business problems are weighing on global growth and business confidence is faltering," said Brett. Ryan, US economist at Deutsche Bank AG "The government's closure weighs on business confidence and could weigh on consumer confidence."

American-Chinese trade war

<p class = "canvas-atom-text-canvas Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Indeed, both current American-Chinese trade war and the partial judgment of the Government have already shook the markets to varying degrees and, although both can be solved in the near future, their impacts could last much longer, even under the best of scenarios. Indeed, both the US-China trade war and the partial closure of the government have already shaken the markets to varying degrees.Although both can be solved in the near future, their impacts could last much longer, even in the best case.

The world's two largest economies have recently completed three days of mid-term trade talks, with both sides indicating that they have made significant progress in rectifying their differences before the new tariffs come into effect on March 1. .

The trade war has hurt both countries. The US stock market experienced a crisis in the fourth quarter and China released data indicating that its economic growth had begun to slow.

<p class = "canvas-atom-text-canvas Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "The Trump administration, for its part, has alleged weakening of the Chinese economy shows that the United States is winning the trade war, but in an increasingly globalized economy, a weak China will become known in the balance sheet of US companies , and companies like Apple and Starbucks feel the heat "data-reactid =" 47 "> The Trump administration, for its part, claimed that the weakening of the Chinese economy proved that the United States was winning the trade war. However, in a increasingly globalized economy, a weak China will make itself known in the balance sheets of US companies, and companies such as Apple and Starbucks are already feeling the heat of the decline in Chinese sales.

Government's decision

US President Donald Trump put an end to the trade war between China and us.

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Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm "type =" text "content =" On this 21st day, analysts say that the US & nbsp;Government judgment could cause the quarterly decline in economic growth of at least 0.2% for each week of extension. Analysts say that, on its 21st day, the US government's closure could result in a quarterly decline in growth of as much as 0.2 percent for each week it expands.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "As a CCN reported, Data-reactid = "62"> As stated by CCN, affected federal employees will miss their first salary lost today. Salaries are now well filled, and private sector companies such as American Airlines are already feeling the effects of the reduced number of trips made by the government.

The effects could become even more pronounced if, contrary to assurances given by the public, the Internal Revenue Service could not process tax refunds on time, thus delaying the annual economic shock that accompanies the return of tax. billions of dollars in the consumer sector.

If the government's closure continues, it will be the longest interruption of federal funding, leaving the nation – and the stock market – in an unknown territory.

83% of economists think that the US will enter recession by 2021

Dow Jones NASDAQ S & P 500

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The story continues

<p class = "canvas-atom-canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "A similar survey conducted by the the Wall Street newspaper is even more disastrous, economists estimate in their survey to 25% the risk of recession in the next 12 months. "data-reactid =" 82 "> A similar survey by the Wall Street Journal is even more alarming, with economists in his survey, the risk of recession in the next 12 months was estimated at 25%.

This places not only the risk of a recession at the highest level of the survey conducted by the Journalist economist since 2011, but also twice that risk compared to the previous year, when respondents expected a probability of recession of 13%.

Bernard Baumohl, chief economist at the Global Outlook Group, was quoted by the newspaper as saying:

A further deterioration of the trade dispute with China, combined with a deeply divided US government and the conclusion [special counsel Robert] The Mueller investigation could undermine all the energy of the economy.

More than half of economists (56.6%) had predicted that the US economy would go into recession by 2020. 26.4% of economists said predict the recession from 2021, which means that almost all analysts surveyed believe that the decade – the long economic boom is about to end.

David Rosenberg: The United States out of their "fiscal ammunition" to face the recession

What is particularly disturbing to some analysts is that when the US goes into recession, it will not do it without being able to deal with it.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "That's the fear of David Rosenberg, the largest economist Gluskin Sheff, a Canadian wealth management firm, estimates that the recession may lead to a recession of 80% in the coming year. stimulated to such an extent that central banks and legislators would no longer have the tools to help the economy recover. "Data-reactid =" 92 "> This is the fear of David Rosenberg, senior economist of the Canadian wealth management company Gluskin Sheff, who predicts that there is a 80% chance that he'll be in business. a recession is triggering over the next year, said that fiscal policy had already been so stimulated that central banks and lawmakers would no longer have the tools to help the economy regain its footing.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "" How are we going to stimulate tax policy? We have already done so at the peak of the cycle, "he said, as a NCC reported. "We do not have fiscal ammunition." "Data-reactid =" 93 ">" How are we going to stimulate tax policy? We had already done it at the peak of the cycle, "he said, as the NCC report." We do not have fiscal ammunition. "

Gold makes progress despite Dow recovery

<p class = "canvas-atom web-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Of course, the stock market is down best start of season for more than ten years, it is a fact that bulls can quote to support that the rally only lasted "midlife crisisTom Fundstrat recently said, "Data-reactid =" 95 "> Of course, the stock market has had its warmest start in more than a decade, a fact bulls can quote to reinforce. the case that the rally as recently declared Tom Lee of Fundstrat.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "However, bears can just as easily replicate as L & # Last year, the Dow and other leading US indices performed well in 2006, just months before the financial crisis began. blaze, even as equities continue to experience strong momentum in early 2019. "data-reactid =" 96 "> However, bears can just as easily replicate as last year, the Dow and other major indices Americans may have performed well in 2006 This may be why the price of gold is skyrocketing, even as equities continue to experience a steady trajectory in early 2019.

Currently, the gold price is trading around the $ 1,300 mark, gold has risen by almost 4% in the last six months, most of these gains having occurred the month latest.

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Even money, once considered the "most hated" precious metal, has sparked renewed interest among speculators. In the last three months, the price of silver has increased by 6.99%, against 5.61% for gold.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Damage, investment bank Goldman Sachs believes gold could still rise 10% over the next 12 months to reach $ 1,425 Troy ounce, mainly for fear of a potential recession. "Data-reactid =" 111 "> Tellingly, investment bank Goldman Sachs estimates that gold could still rise by 10% over the next few months .12 months to $ 1,425 l. troy ounce, mainly on the fear of a potential recession.

"In the future, gold will be mainly supported by the growing demand for defensive assets. The same goes for central bank purchases, rising geopolitical tensions prompting more central banks to re-enter the gold market, "said Jeffrey Currie, of Goldman, in a note sent Thursday to his clients.

Bitcoin shine in economic recession?

Bitcoin price recession

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<p class = "web-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "As it is noted In the SCC's previous coverage, a recession would present an interesting opportunity for Bitcoin, launched in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, but which grew up in the middle of a historic uphill race on Wall Street to establish itself as digital gold "that so much" data-reactid = "126"> As noted in the SCC's previous coverage, a recession would present an interesting opportunity for bitcoin, launched in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, but which has grown a historic bull on Wall Street, to establish himself as the "digital gold" that many of his followers think they can be.

<p class = "canvas-atom-canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "The bitcoin priceAfter a sale on Thursday, it is currently about 80% below the all-time record reached at the end of 2017, giving it enough leeway to gather before having to test new highs. "data-reactid =" 127 "> The bitcoin The price, after a sale on Thursday, is currently about 80% below the all-time record set at the end of 2017, giving it a lot of leverage. maneuver to get up before having to test new heights.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Featured image of Shutterstock. Price table of TradingView."data-reactid =" 128 ">Featured image of Shutterstock. TradingView Price Charts.

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The post office Government Closure and Trade War Doubled Risk of Economic Recession appeared first on NCC.
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After the closure of the government and the trade war, the risk of economic recession was doubled.